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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 2: CORPORATE RISK MANAGEMENT: A PRIMER

Disadvantages of Hedging

        There are some theoretical reasons for a firm not to hedge risk exposures but most of those reasons make the unrealistic assumption of perfect capital markets, which is not realistic. Also, they ignore the existence of the significant costs of financial distress and bankruptcy. However, in practice, there are some valid reasons not to hedge, including the distraction from focusing on the core business, lack of skills and knowledge, and transaction and compliance costs.

Advantages of Hedging

        Many reasons exist for a firm to hedge its risk exposures. Key reasons include lowering the cost of capital, reducing volatility of reported earnings, operational improvements, and potential cost savings over traditional insurance products.

Hedging Methods

        Hedging operational risks tend to cover a firm’s income statement activities while hedging financial risks tend to cover the balance sheet.

        Pricing risk could be thought of as a type of operational risk, requiring the hedging of revenues and costs.

        Foreign currency risk refers to the risk of economic loss due to unfavorable changes in the foreign currency exchange rate; to the extent that there is production and sales activity in the foreign currency, pricing risk would exist simultaneously.

        Interest rate risk refers to the risk inherent in a firm’s net exposure to unfavorable interest rate fluctuations.

Hedging Strategy

        Hedging strategies could be categorized as either static or dynamic, with dynamic strategies being more complex and requiring additional monitoring and transaction costs. Additionally, factors such as time horizon, accounting, and taxation need to be considered within any hedging strategy.

        The board, together with management, should set the firm’s risk appetite using one or more of the following tools: qualitative statements of risk tolerance, value at risk, and stress testing. A firm must know its risk and return goals before embarking on a risk management plan. These goals must be clear and actionable.

        In hedging specific risk factors, it is necessary to consider the role of the board of directors as well as the process of mapping. There should be clarification whether accounting or economic profits are to be hedged. Likewise, there should be clarification whether short-term or long-term accounting profits are to be hedged. Other points the board should consider include the time horizon and the possibility of implementing definitive and quantitative risk limits.

        Mapping risks requires clarification as to which risks are insurable, hedgeable, noninsurable, or nonhedgeable. Mapping risks could be performed for various risks such as market, credit, business, and operational. Essentially, it involves a detailed analysis of the impacts of such risks on the firm’s financial position (balance sheet) and financial performance (income statement).

Risk Management Instruments

        Once the risks are mapped, management and the board need to determine which instruments to use to manage the risks. The relevant instruments can be classified as exchange traded or over the counter (OTC). Exchange-traded instruments are generally quite standardized and liquid. OTC instruments are more customized to the firm’s needs and therefore less liquid. An element of credit risk is also introduced with OTC instruments.



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