Skip to main content

Featured

关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

Total Pageviews

READING 6: FINANCIAL DISASTERS

        These case studies illustrate a number of financial and operational risk management failures. Specifically, we will examine cases involving misleading reporting, large unexpected market movements, and inappropriate customer conduct. Pay close attention to the causes of these financial disasters and how they could have been prevented. You should be prepared to handle questions on these recurring themes.
        
Drysdale Securities was able to borrow $300 million in unsecured funds from Chase Manhattan by exploiting a flaw in the system for computing the value of collateral.
         The head of the government bond trading desk at Kidder Peabody, Joseph Jett, reported substantial artificial profits. After the false profits were detected, $350 million in previously reported gains had to be reversed.
         Hidden trading losses at Barings induced Nick Leeson to abandon hedging strategies in favor of speculative strategies. A lack of operational oversight and his dual roles as trader and settlement officer allowed him to conceal his activities and losses.
         A currency trader for Allied Irish Bank, John Rusnak, hid $691 million in losses. Rusnak bullied back-office workers into not following-up on trade confirmations for imaginary trades.
         UBS’s equity derivatives business lost millions in 1997 and 1998. The losses were mostly due to incorrect modeling of long-dated options and the firm’s stake in Long-Term Capital Management.
         Jérôme Kerviel, a junior trader at Société Générale, participated in unauthorized trading activity and concealed this activity with fictitious offsetting transactions. The fraud resulted in $7.1 billion in losses and severely damaged the reputation of Société Générale.
         Extreme leverage, a lack of diversification, and inadequate risk models put Long-Term Capital Management in a cash flow crisis when an economic shock created intolerable marked to market losses and margin calls. A forced liquidation of its huge positions drove prices down, further compounding their losses.
         The financial crisis at Metallgesellschaft resulted fundamentally from cash flow timing differences associated with the positions making up its hedge. Cash flows on short forward contracts occurred over the distant future. Cash flows on long futures contracts occurred daily. In addition, the sizes of the positions were so large that it prevented the company from liquidating its positions without incurring large losses.
         Bankers Trust developed derivative structures that were intentionally complex and prevented Procter & Gamble and Gibson Greetings from fully understanding the trade values and risks that were involved. In taped phone conversations, BT’s staff bragged about how badly they fooled clients.
         JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup were the main counterparties in Enron’s derivative transactions. After the Enron scandal was revealed, these investment banks agreed to pay a $286 million fine for assisting with fraud against Enron shareholders.

Popular Posts