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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 8: GETTING UP TO SPEED ON THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A ONEWEEKEND- READER’S GUIDE

Key Terms Related to the Financial Crisis

  • Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP). Commercial paper is created when nonfinancial firms with high credit ratings raise capital by issuing short-term debt. ABCP is the bundling of longer-term debt from mortgages, credit card receivables, and other loans. When ABCP reaches its maturity date, it is rolled over and bundled into new ABCP.
  • Bank run or “run”. A bank run occurs when depositors withdraw cash from a bank thinking the bank is about to fail. A run can also be used as a generic term describing the withdrawal of cash by investors from any type of financial intermediary [e.g., a pension plan (depositor) withdrawing cash from a money market mutual fund (MMF)]. This example would be a run on the MMF.
  • Shadow bank. A shadow bank is a financial institution other than a regulated depository institution. Examples of regulated depository institutions are commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions. Examples of shadow banks are private equity funds, investment banks, hedge funds, mortgage lenders, and insurance companies.
  • Repurchase agreements (repos). Repos involve an institutional investor making a short-term deposit of cash with a shadow bank that in turn pays the investor interest on the cash (called the repo rate). The shadow bank also gives the investor some type of collateral that the investor could sell in the event that the shadow bank does not return the investor’s cash.
  • Haircut. A haircut is the amount of collateral in a repo agreement in relation to a deposit. For example, if an institutional investor deposits $90 million with a shadow bank and the investor receives collateral worth $100 million, the haircut is 10%.

Historical Background Of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis

        The main trigger of the financial crisis was the prospect of losses on subprime mortgages. In the first half of 2007, housing prices in the United States started to decline, causing several subprime mortgage lenders to file for bankruptcy and subsequently fail. These losses became amplified as they had a ripple effect that spread to the main vulnerabilities of the crisis, asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) and repurchase agreements.

The Build-up to the Financial Crisis

        When housing prices declined and homeowners defaulted on their mortgage loans, it reduced the value and prices of ABCP. These declining prices resulted in bank runs on shadow banks and money market mutual funds (MMFs) and signaled the start of a liquidity crisis.
         The liquidity crisis continued to spread into repo agreements with the average haircut going from near zero at the beginning of 2007 to 25% by September of 2008 (Lehman Brothers bankruptcy).

Lehman Brothers Failure

        The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing in September 2008 is considered the tipping point in the financial crisis. It eroded confidence and caused a run on MMFs. This lack of confidence spread across markets and countries, amplifying losses in the subprime mortgage market.

The Historical Background leading to the Recent Financial Crisis

        The recent financial crisis was not unique compared to previous banking crises. It followed a similar pattern of increased public and private debt, increased credit supply, and increased housing prices preceding and leading to the crises.

The Two Main Panic Periods

        The two main panic periods of the financial crisis were August 2007 and September 2008 through October 2008. The first panic period in August 2007 occurred when there were runs on ABCP. The start of the second panic period was September 2008 when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.

        Lehman’s failure caused a run on a particular MMF called Reserve Primary, which contained commercial paper issued by Lehman. The run on Reserve Primary spread to other MMFs, which started a contagion effect that spread to other assets that were falling in price in tandem with rising haircuts.

Financial Crisis Policy Response And Global Effects

        The International Monetary Fund (IMF) studied 13 developed countries and their responses to the financial crisis. This resulted in 153 separate policy actions that were divided into 5 subgroups consisting of interest rate change, liquidity support, recapitalization, liability guarantees, and asset purchases.

Global Effects on Firms and the Economy

        Studies done on the effects of the global financial crisis on corporations and consumers pointed out that as the global recession strengthened, the demand for credit decreased.

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