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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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Reading 31 : Banks

Major Risks Faced by Banks

The major risks faced by a bank include the following:

  • Credit risk from defaults on loans or by counterparties.
  • Market risk from declines in the value of trading book assets.
  • Operational risk from external events or failure of internal controls.

Capital Requirements For Banks

        To mitigate the risk of bank failures caused by losses on loans or trading assets, banks must be funded by adequate sources of capital. Banks and their regulators may have different views about how much capital is sufficient in light of the risks a bank faces.

Economic Capital vs. Regulatory Capital

        Regulatory capital is the amount of capital that regulators require a bank to hold. This may include equity, or Tier 1 capital, and long-term subordinated debt, or Tier 2 capital.
         Economic capital is the amount of capital a bank believes it needs to hold based on its own models. Regulatory capital is typically greater than economic capital.

Deposit Insurance and Moral Hazard

        Deposit insurance exists to increase public trust in the banking system. However, it gives rise to moral hazard by decreasing the attention depositors pay to a bank’s financial health and increasing the level of risk a bank is willing to take when its depositors are insured.

Investment Banking Financing Arrangements

        In a private placement, securities are sold directly to qualified investors. In a public offering, securities are sold to the investing public.
         When assisting a securities issuer on a best efforts basis, an investment bank sells as much of the issue to the public as it can. In a firm commitment, an investment bank buys an entire issue of securities from the issuer for one price and resells the securities to the public for a higher price. A Dutch auction process may be used to determine a price for an initial public offering.

Potential Conflicts of Interest

        Within a firm that provides commercial banking, investment banking, and securities services, inherent conflicts of interest exist. Information may be acquired in a commercial banking or investment banking transaction that would give the other units an unfair advantage. An investment bank’s task of selling newly issued stocks and bonds may conflict with a securities unit’s duties to act in the best interests of its clients and recommend trading actions independently.
         Bank regulators generally require commercial banking, investment banking, and securities activities to be kept separate, either by preventing firms from engaging in more than one of these activities or by requiring Chinese walls between these units of a bank.

Banking Book vs. Trading Book

        The banking book refers to loans made by a bank. The balance sheet value of a loan includes the principal amount to be repaid and accrued interest, unless the loan becomes nonperforming, in which case the value does not include accrued interest.
         The trading book refers to assets and liabilities related to a bank’s trading activities. Trading book items are marked to market daily based on actual market prices when they exist or on estimated prices when necessary.

The Originate-to-Distribute Model

        The originate-to-distribute model involves banks making loans and selling them to other parties, many of which pool the loans and issue securities backed by their cash flows. This model frees up capital for the originating banks and may increase liquidity in sectors of the loan market. However, it has also led to decreased lending standards and lower credit quality of the loans sold.

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