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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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Reading 33 : MUTUAL FUNDS, ETFS, AND HEDGE FUNDS

Mutual Funds And Exchange-Traded Funds

        There are three primary types of commingled pools of investments that are available to investors. They are open-end mutual funds, closed-end mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

       Open-end funds transact at the next available net asset value (NAV), which occurs after the market has closed for the day. Shares may be redeemed directly from the fund company with an open-end fund.

       Closed-end funds transact throughout the trading day, but shares cannot be redeemed at the fund company and their price may differ substantially from their NAV—the shares must be bought or sold by other investors.

        Exchange-traded funds also trade throughout the day, but their shares do trade at the NAV. ETFs usually have the lowest internal fees, which is a big component of investment returns.

Net Asset Value

        The NAV is easily calculated as the total invested assets of the fund minus any liabilities (typically management fees payable) all divided by the total shares outstanding. The NAV for an open-end fund is set after the trading day is over, while the NAV for a closed-end fund and an exchange-traded fund is calculated continuously throughout the trading day. The NAV is used to determine the number of shares purchased or sold in a fund.

Active and Passive Management

        Passive management is an attempt to mimic the performance of an index. Active management is an attempt to outperform a specific benchmark. Historical data suggests that actively managed funds have an average alpha near zero.

Hedge Funds

        Both mutual funds and hedge funds offer professional management, instant diversification, and the ability to commingle funds with other investors.

        However, there are some notable differences between mutual funds and hedge funds.

        Hedge funds are only marketed to wealthy and sophisticated investors. Because of this, hedge funds escape certain regulatory oversight, which enables them to avoid allowing investors to redeem shares at any time they want, calculating the NAV daily, and disclosing investment policies and strategies. They are also permitted to use leverage and short selling, which are commonly not permitted for mutual funds. In addition, hedge funds use lock-up periods to prevent investor withdrawals at the wrong time for the fund.

Hedge Fund Expected Returns and Fee Structures

        Hedge funds commonly deploy a 2% and 20% incentive fee structure, where they earn management fees for investment results relative to a given hurdle rate. Investors are partially protected with the use of high-water marks and clawback clauses.

Hedge Fund Strategies

        There are many different types of hedge fund strategies. They all search for perceived mispricings in different corners of the markets and then try to exploit them for profit.
        Long/short equity funds take both long and short positions in the equity markets, diversifying or hedging across sectors, regions, or market capitalizations, and have directional exposure to the overall market.
         Dedicated short funds tend to take net short positions in equities, and their returns are negatively correlated with equities.
         Distressed hedge funds invest across the capital structure of firms that are under financial or operational distress or are in the middle of bankruptcy. These hedge fund managers try to profit from an issuer’s ability to improve its operation or come out of a bankruptcy successfully.
         Merger arbitrage funds bet on spreads related to proposed merger and acquisition transactions.
         Convertible arbitrage funds attempt to profit from the purchase of convertible securities and the shorting of corresponding stock.
        Fixed income arbitrage funds try to obtain profits by exploiting inefficiencies and price anomalies between related fixed income securities.
        Emerging market funds invest in currencies, debt, equities, and other instruments in countries with emerging or developing markets.
         Global macro managers make large bets on directional movements in interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, and stock indices and do better during extreme moves in the currency markets.
        Managed futures funds attempt to predict future movements in commodity prices based on either technical analysis or fundamental analysis.

Hedge Fund Performance and Measurement Bias

        Hedge fund benchmarks are problematic due to measurement bias and backfill bias. Over the last ten years, reported hedge fund performance suggests that they have only beaten the S&P 500 Index in two of those years.

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