Skip to main content

Featured

关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

Total Pageviews

reading 34 : INTRODUCTION (OPTIONS, FUTURES, AND OTHER DERIVATIVES)

Over-the-counter (OTC) Market And traditional Exchange Market

        The over-the-counter (OTC) market is used for large trades, and a typical OTC trade is conducted over the phone. Terms are not set by an “exchange,” giving traders more flexibility to negotiate mutually agreeable terms. The OTC market has more credit risk. Exchanges are organized to eliminate credit risk.

        Advantages of over-the-counter trading:

  • Terms are not set by any exchange.
  • Participants have flexibility to negotiate.
  • In the event of a misunderstanding, calls are recorded.

        Disadvantages of over-the-counter trading:

  • OTC trading has more credit risk than exchange trading. Exchanges are organized in such a way that credit risk is eliminated.

Options, Forwards, And Futures Contracts

        A call option gives its holder the right to buy a specified number of shares of the underlying security at the given strike price, on or before the option contract’s expiration date, while a put option is the right to sell a fixed number of shares at a fixed price within a given prespecified time period.
         A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a pre-selected future time for a certain price.
         A futures contract is a more formalized, legally binding agreement to buy or sell a commodity or financial asset in a pre-designated month in the future, at a price agreed upon today by the buyer/seller.

Payoff

The payoff on a call option to the option buyer is calculated as follows:
         CallT = max (0, ST − X)
         where:
         ST = stock price at maturity
         X = strike price of option
The payoff on a put option is calculated as follows:
         PutT = max (0, X − ST)
         where:
         ST = stock price at maturity
         X = strike price of option
The payoff to a long position in a forward contract is calculated as follows:
         payoff = ST − K
         where:
         ST = spot price at maturity
         K = delivery price

Derivatives Traders

There are three broad types of traders: hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs.

        Hedging is used for risk management. The hedger has a risk associated with the underlying commodity or financial instrument. The use of futures helps mitigate those risks.

        Speculating does not mitigate risk but is risk-taking. Profit is the motive of the speculator since he has no risk before entering into the futures transactions.

        Arbitrage ensures that futures and cash markets stay in balance. Buying in the cheaper market and selling in the overpriced market will bring markets back into alignment and provide a riskless profit for an arbitrageur.

        Hedging Strategies

        Hedgers use derivatives to control or eliminate a financial exposure. Futures lock in the price of the underlying security and do not allow for any upside potential. Options hedge negative price movements and allow for upside potential since they have asymmetric payouts.

        Speculative Strategies

        Speculators use derivatives to make bets on the market. Futures require a small initial investment, which is the initial margin requirement. Futures contracts can result in large gains or large losses as futures have a symmetrical payout function.

        Arbitrage Opportunities

        Arbitrageurs seek to earn a riskless profit through the discovery and manipulation of mispriced securities. Riskless profit is earned by entering into equivalent offsetting positions in one or more markets. Arbitrage opportunities do not last long as the act of arbitrage brings prices back into equilibrium quickly.

Risks From Using Derivatives

        Derivatives are versatile instruments and can be used for hedging, arbitrage, and pure speculation. Controls need to be carefully established to prevent misuse of derivatives. Risk limits must be carefully established and scrupulously enforced.

Popular Posts