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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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reading 35 : FUTURES MARKETS AND CENTRAL COUNTERPARTIES

Futures Characteristics

        A long (short) futures position obligates the owner to buy (sell) the underlying asset at a specified price and date. Most futures positions are reversed (or closed out) as opposed to satisfying the contract by making (or taking) delivery.

Futures/Spot Convergence

        The spot price of a commodity or financial asset is the price for immediate delivery. The futures price is the price today for delivery at some future point in time (i.e., the maturity date). The basis is the difference between the spot price and the futures price. As the maturity date nears, the basis converges toward zero. Arbitrage will force the spot and futures prices to be the same at contract expiration.

Margin Requirements

        Futures are traded on margin (leveraged):

  • Initial margin is the necessary collateral to trade the futures.
  • Maintenance margin is the minimum collateral amount required to retain trading privileges.
  • Variation margin is the collateral amount that must be deposited to replenish the margin account back to the initial margin.

        The futures market is a zero-sum game in that the short’s losses are the long’s gains and vice versa. Gains and losses due to changes in futures prices are computed at the end of each trading day in a process known as marking to market.

Clearinghouses in Futures Transactions

        The clearinghouse maintains an orderly and liquid market by acting as the counterparty to each long or short futures position. In the over-the-counter (OTC) markets, the central counterparty (i.e., clearinghouse) becomes the counterparty to both parties in an OTC transaction.

Central Counterparties in Over-the-Counter Transactions

        Historically, OTC markets functioned as a series of bilateral agreements between parties through a process known as bilateral clearing. Regulators have pushed for the use of centralized clearing in OTC markets through the use of central counterparties (CCPs) in an attempt to reduce systemic risk. CCPs operate in a similar fashion to clearinghouses on futures exchanges.

        Collateralization is a means of reducing credit risk in bilateral OTC contracts. It is a marked-to-market feature where any loss is settled in cash at the end of the trading day. A cash payment is made to the counterparty with a positive account balance.

Futures Market Quotes

        Increasing settlement prices over time indicate a normal market, while decreasing settlement prices over time indicate an inverted market.

        Futures quotes can be found from exchanges as well as various online sources. Quotes typically contain the last trading price, the previous day’s settlement price, and the open, high, and low prices for a particular trading day. The settlement price is typically computed as the price right before the end of the previous trading day The quote would also include the trading volume of each futures contract, which indicates the number of contracts that have been traded on a given day.

The Delivery Process

        A short can terminate the futures contract by delivering the goods. When the long accepts this delivery, he pays the contract price to the short. This is known as the delivery process. In a cash-settlement contract, delivery is not an option.

Types of Trading Orders

        Several different types of orders exist in the marketplace including: market, limit, stop-loss, stop-limit, and market-if-touched orders. Market orders are orders to buy or sell at the best price available. Limit orders are orders to buy or sell away from the current market price. Stop-loss orders are used to prevent losses or to protect profits. Stop-limit orders are a combination of a stop and limit order. Market-if-touched orders are orders that would become market orders once a specified price is reached.

Forwards and Futures Contracts

        Futures contracts are similar to forward contracts in that both allow for a transaction to take place at a future date at a price agreed upon today. The difference between the two is that forward contracts are private, customized contracts, while futures trade on an organized exchange and have terms that are highly standardized.

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