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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 40 : SWAP

Plain Vanilla Interest Rate Swap

        A plain vanilla interest rate swap exchanges floating-rate payments (LIBOR) for fixed-rate payments over the life of the swap. The floating rate payments at time t in a plain vanilla interest rate swap are computed using the floating rate at time t − 1.

        Interest rate swaps can be combined with existing asset and liability positions to drastically change the interest rate risk.

Financial Intermediaries

        A swap dealer or financial intermediary facilitates the ability to enter into swaps.

        Confirmations outline the details of each swap agreement. A representative of each party signs the confirmation, ensuring that they agree with all swap details and the steps taken in the event of default.

Comparative Advantage

        The comparative advantage argument suggests that when one of two borrowers has a comparative advantage in either the fixed- or floating-rate market, both borrowers will be better off by entering into a swap to exploit the advantage. The comparative advantage argument is flawed in that it assumes rates can be borrowed for the life of the swap. It also ignores the credit risk associated with the swap that does not exist if funds were raised directly in the capital markets.

The Discount Rate

        Since a swap is nothing more than a sequence of cash flows, its value is determined by discounting each cash flow back to the valuation date. The cash flows are discounted using the corresponding spot rate from the LIBOR spot curve.

Valuing an Interest Rate Swap With Bonds

        The value of a swap to the fixed-rate receiver at a point in time is the difference between the present value of the remaining fixed-rate payments and the present value of the remaining floating-rate payments.

Valuing an Interest Rate Swap With FRAs

        Valuing a swap based on a sequence of forward rate agreements (FRAs) produces the same result as valuing a swap based on two simultaneous bond positions.

Currency Swaps

        A currency swap exchanges interest rate payments in two different currencies. The exchange rate used in currency swaps is the spot exchange rate.

        Currency swaps can be combined with existing positions to completely alter the risk of a liability or an asset.

        In addition to valuing a currency swap based on two simultaneous bond positions, the value of a currency swap can also be calculated based on a sequence of FRAs.

        Since the principals in a currency swap are not the same currency, they are exchanged at the inception of the currency swap so that they have equal value using the spot exchange rate. Also, the periodic cash flows throughout the swap are not netted as they are in an interest rate swap.

Swap Credit Risk

        Credit risk is an important factor in existing swap positions, although potential losses are usually smaller than that with debt agreements.

Commodity, Volatility, and Exotic Swaps

        Many different types of swaps exist. Examples of swaps, in addition to interest rate swaps and currency swaps, include: equity swaps, commodity swaps, and volatility swaps.

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