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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 43 : TRADING STRATEGIES INVOLVING OPTIONS

Protective Puts And Covered Calls

        Stock options can be combined with their underlying stock to generate various payoff profiles. A protective put combines an at-the-money long put position with the underlying stock. A covered call involves selling a call option on a stock that is owned by the option writer.

Option Spread Strategies

        Spread strategies combine options in the same option class to generate various payoff profiles.
         The buyer of a bull call spread expects the stock price to rise and the purchased call to finish in-the-money. However, the buyer does not believe that the price of the stock will rise above the exercise price for the out-of-the-money written call.
         The bear call spread trader will purchase the call with the higher exercise price and sell the call with the lower exercise price. This strategy is designed to profit from falling stock prices (i.e., a “bear” strategy). As stock prices fall, the investor keeps the premium from the written call, net of the long call’s cost.
         A box spread is an extreme method of locking in value. The dollar return for a box spread is fixed. It is a combination of a bull call spread and a bear put spread.
         A calendar spread is created by transacting in two options that have the same strike price but different expirations.
         The buyer of a butterfly spread is essentially betting that the stock price will stay near the strike price of the written calls. However, the loss that the butterfly spread buyer sustains if the stock price strays from this level is not large.
         In a diagonal spread, options can have different strike prices and different expirations.
                 Bull call spread:
                         profit = max(0,ST − XL) − max(0,ST − XH) − CL0 + CH0
                 Bear put spread:
                         profit = max(0,XH − ST) − max(0,XL − ST) − PH0 + PL0
                 Butterfly spread:
                         profit = max(0,ST − XL) − 2max(0,ST − XM) + max(0,ST − XH) − CL0 + 2CM0 − CH0

Option Combination Strategies

        Combination strategies combine puts and calls to generate various payoff strategies.
         A long straddle (bottom straddle or straddle purchase) is created by purchasing a call and a put with the same strike price and expiration. Note that this strategy only pays off when the stock moves in either direction.
         A strangle (or bottom vertical combination) is similar to a straddle except that the option purchased is slightly out-of-the-money, so it is cheaper to implement than the straddle.
         A strip is betting on volatility but is more bearish since it pays off more on the down side.
         A strap is betting on volatility but is more bullish since it pays off more on the up side.
                 Straddle:
                          profit = max(0,ST − X) + max(0,X − ST) − C0 − P0
                 Strangle:
                         profit = max(0,ST − XH) + max(0,XL − ST) − C0 − P0

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