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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 47 : BASIC PRINCIPLES OF CENTRAL CLEARING

Mechanics Of A Central Counterparty (CCP)

        CCPs play important roles in the clearing and settlement of transactions. Clearing refers to the processes between the period from trade execution until settlement. Settlement refers to the satisfaction of legal obligations and trade completion.
         Functions of a CCP include novation, netting, margining, managing the auction process, and loss mutualization. Auctioning refers to selling off the defaulted member’s trades to the surviving members through an auctioning process. Loss mutualization refers to members’ contributions to a default fund to cover future losses from member defaults.
         Other aspects and mechanics of CCPs include:

  • Categories of OTC derivatives products: (1) long history of central clearing (e.g., interest rate swaps), (2) short history of central clearing (e.g., index credit default swaps), (3) soon to be centrally cleared (e.g., interest rate swaptions, credit default swaps), and (4) not suitable for central clearing (e.g., exotic derivatives).
  • Conditions needed for central clearing: product standardization, lower complexity, and high liquidity.
  • Participants: Transacting with CCPs is restricted to clearing members only. Member criteria include admission criteria, financial commitment, and operational criteria.
  • Number of CCPs: It is generally not feasible to have a single CCP due to regional differences in trades and requirements, differences in product types, and regulatory reasons.
  • Types of CCPs: CCPs could be utility-driven CCP (i.e., focused on long-term stability) or profit-driven CCP (i.e., focused on bottom line). Arguments generally support profit-driven CCPs.
  • Failure of a CCP: The potential failure of a large CCP could create a catastrophic event. CCPs must therefore ensure sufficient loss absorption capacity.

Advantages And Disadvantages

        Advantages of CCPs include: transparency, offsetting, loss mutualization, legal and operational efficiency, liquidity, and default management.
         Disadvantages of CCPs include: moral hazard, adverse selection, separation of cleared and non-cleared products, and procyclicality of margin requirements.

Margining

        Margining includes posting both initial margin and variation margin. Margining tends to be more stringent in central clearing than in OTC markets. CCPs set margin requirements based only on the risks of the members’ transactions, and the credit quality of the member is typically not a consideration for initial margin.

Novation and Netting

        Novation refers to replacing a bilateral OTC contract with another contract (or contracts) with the CCP, where the CCP is the insurer of counterparty risk. The CCP maintains a “matched book” of trades with no net market risk.
         Multilateral offset, or netting, refers to creating a single net obligation between each participant and the CCP from the various bilateral OTC trades (which typically include redundant trades). Netting reduces total risk and minimizes contagion from a member default.

Impact of Central Clearing

        By including a CCP in the clearing process, systemic risk can be both reduced and increased. Systemic risk is reduced because counterparty risk is reduced, and transparency and liquidity improve. Systemic risk is increased because higher initial margin during times of stress would heighten market risk, and the failure of a CCP may lead to a catastrophic event.

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