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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 57: THE GREEK LETTERS

Naked And Covered Positions

        A naked call option is written without owning the underlying asset, whereas a covered call is a short call option where the writer owns the underlying asset. Neither of these positions is a hedged position.

A Stop-Loss Strategy

        Stop-loss trading strategies are designed to minimize losses in the event the price of the underlying exceeds the strike price of a short call-option position.

Delta Hedging

        To completely hedge a long stock or short call position, an investor must purchase the number of shares of stock equal to delta times the number of options sold. Another term for being completely hedged is delta-neutral.
         A forward/futures contract position can easily be hedged with an offsetting underlying asset position with the same number of securities.

Delta

        The delta of an option, Δ, is the ratio of the change in price of the call option, c, to the change in price of the underlying asset, s, for small changes in s.

Dynamic Aspects of Delta Hedging

        Delta-neutral hedges are sophisticated hedging methods that minimize changes in a portfolio’s position due to changes in the underlying security.
         Delta-neutral hedges are only appropriate for small changes in the underlying asset and need to be rebalanced when large changes in the asset’s value occur.

Portfolio Delta

        The delta of a portfolio is a weighted average of the deltas of each portfolio position.

Theta, Gamma, Vega, And Rho

        Theta, also referred to as the time decay of an option, measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to decreases in time to expiration.
         Gamma measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in the option’s delta.
         Vega measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in the underlying asset’s volatility.
         Rho measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in the level of interest rates.

Gamma-neutral

        Gamma is used to correct the hedging error associated with delta-neutral positions by providing added protection against large movements in the underlying asset’s price.
         Gamma-neutral positions are created by matching the gamma of the portfolio with an offsetting option position.

The Relationship Between Delta, Theta, Gamma, And Vega

        Theta, delta, and gamma directly affect the rate of return of an option portfolio.
         Stock option prices are affected by delta, theta, and gamma as indicated in the following relationship:
                 rΠ = Θ + rSΔ + 0.5σ2S2Γ
                 where:
                 r = the risk-neutral risk-free rate of interest
                 Π = the price of the option
                 Θ = the option theta
                 S = the price of the underlying stock
                 Δ = the option delta
                 σ2 = the variance of the underlying stock
                 Γ = the option gamma

Hedging Activities In Practice

       Hedging usually entails actively managing a delta-neutral position while monitoring the other option Greek sensitivities.

Portfolio Insurance

        Portfolio insurance is the combination of (1) an underlying instrument and (2) either cash or a derivative that generates a floor value of the portfolio in the event that market valuations decline, while allowing for upside potential in the event that market valuations rise.

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