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关于对24年中国经济形势的一点看法

        今天已经是大年初五,春节也差不多接近尾声了,也是我在老家待的最后一天,刚好饭后闲来无事,终于静下心来有空写一写宏观经济分析。         回顾23年春节前的几个交易日,权益市场比较动荡,中证1000的平值隐含波动率最高冲到了91.48,要知道中证1000的实现波动率中位数也就15左右,而春节前几个交易日的连续大幅下跌和国家队快速出手使得权益市场走出深V形态,历史和隐含波动率也随之快速飙升。                另外伴随着雪球集体敲入、DMA爆仓等各类事件爆发,权益市场一片鬼哭狼嚎,就在大家都在讨论这波大A行情该谁来背锅时,证监会突发换帅。想想之前频繁出现在财经类流量博主文章中的北向、量化、公墓等,这次券商场外衍生品和私募微盘股应该也难逃一劫。都说经济繁荣时,大家都忙着数钱根本没有人在意合不合规,经济衰退时,你连呼吸都是错的,人性就是如此。关于现有微观市场体制的一些问题我之前也写过一些文章,这里不想再赘述,这里只想探讨一下宏观经济形势问题。         经济活动存在周期,这是我们初学经济学时就所熟知的,一个完整的经济周期包含繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,每个阶段一般没有固定的时间长度和明显的分界线。但是如果回顾国内经济发展的历史情况,我们便可以大致发现国内经济增长开始下滑并不是近两年才开始的,三年疫情只是一场突如其来的黑天鹅,并没有影响整个大经济周期的演变方向。              从上图不难看出,从2001年加入世贸组织后,我国经济增长率同比逐年上升,呈现出快速发展的繁荣景象,也就是当时全球媒体称赞的“中国速度”。直到2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,中国也深受波及,随后政府出台了史上最大规模的“4万亿”扩张政策,虽然帮助中国摆脱了金融危机的泥潭,但也造成了后续非常严重的产能过剩、通货膨...

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READING 67: GOVERNANCE OVER STRESS TESTING

Stress Testing Governance

        Stress tests should be conducted appropriately under adequate oversight as part of an institution’s governance and controls.
         Key elements of effective governance and controls over stress testing include the governance structure, policies and procedures, documentation, validation and independent review, and internal audit.

Responsibilities of the Board and Senior Management

        The board of directors is accountable for the entire organization and must be sufficiently knowledgeable about the organization’s stress testing activities.
         Stress testing results inform the board of the institution’s risk appetite and profile and operating and strategic decisions, and they may serve as early warning signs of upcoming pressures.
         Boards should actively challenge the results of stress tests and supplement them with other tests as well as both quantitative and qualitative information.
         Senior management, with oversight from the board, is responsible for establishing robust policies for stress tests, which could supplement other risk, capital, and adequacy measures. Management is also responsible for reviewing and coordinating stress test activities, assigning competent staff, challenging results and assumptions, and incorporating remedies to potential problems.
         Senior management should ensure that there is a sufficient range of stress testing activities to evaluate risks. Results should be benchmarked and regularly updated given that risks, data sources, and the operating environment can change. An independent auditor should verify test results.
         Senior management should regularly report to the board of directors on stress testing results in a clear and concise way, highlighting the key elements of the stress testing activities and any limitations.

Policies, Procedures, and Documentation

        Stress testing activities should be governed by clear and comprehensive policies and procedures that are updated annually and documented in an appropriate manner. Appropriate documentation allows senior management to track and analyze results over time.
         Documentation should include a description of the stress tests, main assumptions, results, limitations, and any proposed remedies. Those responsible for documentation should be given incentives given the complexity and time-consuming nature of preparing documents. Documentation received from external parties should be reviewed.
         Stress test policies, procedures, and documentation should address a range of issues, including describing the purpose and process of stress test activities, establishing consistent and adequate practices, defining roles and responsibilities, determining the frequency and priority of stress testing activities, and describing proposed remedies.

Validation and Independent Review

        Ongoing validation and independent review of stress testing activities is an important component of an institution’s governance. Validation and independent review should be unbiased and critical, and they should form part of the institution’s overall validation and review processes.
         Results should be compared with appropriate benchmarks that reflect the institution’s risks and exposures.
         Stress tests for nonstress periods (i.e., “good times”) should be incorporated into an institution’s model to test their predictive power and usefulness. Models used in nonstress periods may require a different set of assumptions given changing risks, correlations, and behavior by market participants.
         Institutions do not need to fully validate stress tests, but limitations, challenges, and proposed remedies should be communicated and disclosed in a transparent manner.
         Validation and independent review should challenge the review process and the qualitative components of the stress test, implement development standards, validate and implement stress tests, and monitor performance.

Role of Internal Audits

        The internal audit assesses the integrity and reliability of policies and procedures. It should verify that stress tests are conducted thoroughly and as intended, by staff with the relevant expertise.
         The internal audit should also review the procedures relating to the documentation, review, and approval of stress tests. Any deficiencies should be identified.

Key Aspects of Stress Testing Governance

        An institution’s governance framework should incorporate stress testing coverage, stress testing types and approaches, and capital and liquidity stress testing.
         Stress testing coverage should incorporate the relationship between risks and exposures in the short term and long term, and detect risk concentrations that could negatively impact an institution. Coverage can be applied to individual exposures, the entire institution, or various sublevels within an institution.
         Stress testing types and approaches should consider the firm-specific and system-wide impacts of stresses from historical and hypothetical scenarios, and should include stresses that challenge the entire institution’s viability. When stress testing is complemented with scenario analysis, scenarios should be robust and credible.
         Capital and liquidity stress testing should be harmonized with overall strategy and planning and updated for all material results and events. The impact of multiple simultaneous risks should be considered, including capital and liquidity problems that could arise simultaneously and magnify risks. Objectives for capital and liquidity funding costs should be clearly articulated. Excess exposures and areas should be identified where liquidity and capital positions can be strengthened.

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